Facing new energy challenges, what is the market prospect of diesel engines

At present, the three major development trends in the commercial vehicle market are “electricized, interconnected, and intelligent”, and many visions have become a reality. Major European manufacturers have begun mass production of medium-sized electric trucks, intelligent application models and no one. The driving car also began accepting customer reservations. So, how far can the future of the diesel engine that has ruled for more than a hundred years go? Can the heavy-duty electrification problem be solved? Is the fuel cell the export of long-distance transportation? How do users in Europe and America choose trucks and choose engines?

As a representative of the power system, Cummins has focused on the present and has made a series of strategic arrangements. Mr. Tom Linebarger, Chairman and CEO of Cummins, also detailed Cummins’ interpretation of these issues.

Q: What is the current performance of the North American heavy truck market?

A: The North American heavy truck market is very good now. It will grow from 2017 and grow faster in 2018. This year’s heavy truck sales are close to the best level in history. According to the current trend heavy truck market, the 8 truck market will continue to grow, grades 6 and 7. Although the market is small, the trucks perform equally well, and the growth rate is not so high, but it is more stable.

Q: What is the average mileage of each truck in the US team?

A: Generally speaking, the mileage depends on the operating conditions, but we can often see that a truck in long-distance transportation can reach 100,000 miles (about 160,000 kilometers).

Q: What is the overall trend in the European market?

A: The situation in Europe is almost the same. The new California carbon emission regulations can be equated with the Euro 7 emission standards. The specific standards are also unknown, but everyone knows that it will be very strict. There will be a series of regulations to reduce carbon dioxide emissions. I don’t know what the final answer is. , but at least 15%-30% reduction, which is very difficult, so all engines may need to be hybridized or reused in the fuel cycle to meet the requirements. I think in the commercial vehicle sector, whether in Europe or the United States, diesel engines will continue to dominate for a long time to come, because diesel engines will achieve better fuel efficiency, hybrid power or 50% of braking energy through a certain technology. It will be a goal to use, and diesel engine efficiency has increased by almost 50% in the past 5-10 years, and the technology has been more than 100 years old. I also believe that electrification will make progress, but I think the field of application will be passenger cars and urban application vehicles.

In the city, multi-purpose vehicles, last-mile delivery, and sanitation vehicles will be more suitable for electric vehicles. Because the operating range is reasonable, the weight of the battery is not too large, so any of the above tasks can be completed; secondly, the city is willing to pay for it because they need to reduce noise and pollution, so they will work hard to promote it. Third, in the United States and Europe, we have seen many cities in action, which will promote urban electrification. I believe that urban vehicles will be the first to achieve electrification.

Q: How do you predict the future trend of diesel engine technology?

A: From the perspective of diesel engines, there are two or three major trends.

Trend one

Better fuel economy, continuous reduction of carbon dioxide emissions to improve fuel efficiency, better use of waste heat, reduction of peroxide emissions, and lighter weight, these are major trends that will not change, but emissions regulations will be even more strict. The internal combustion engine cycle always produces waste, so it needs to work in other areas. This is a big trend.

From Cummins’ point of view, we produce a lot of parts, such as fuel system, booster system, control system, filter, aftertreatment system, we invest a lot in these aspects, and always provide customers with high-efficiency fuel to meet stringent emission standards. engine.

Trend two

People have higher expectations for California standards, they will require NOx emissions to continue to decrease, and the next standard under discussion and negotiation will be more challenging and will be much lower than current standard emission limits, when national standards are There will also be controversy, so every manufacturer is doing technical reserves for this, but the trend is still unclear.

Cummins is currently conducting a forward-looking project to develop the next generation of diesel engines using existing energy sources. The goal is to increase fuel efficiency to 50% from the aerodynamics, tires and engines of trucks, which will be very significant. Improvement. I think Cummins is leading this trend, breaking through new technologies, allowing customers to work more efficiently and reduce costs.

Trend three

How to apply new technologies such as electrification in heavy trucks. Because in the field of heavy trucks, it is difficult for batteries to replace the engine as the main power unit, but like hybrids, there is such a potential, so there will be a lot of work to be done in this area. So what can an electric car do, or what other help can be provided by electrification, such as a heater in a thermal management system, or a battery can help solve some of the problems in the cycle or use some of the braking energy, but on long distances In transportation, there is less braking, so less energy can be collected, so in order to improve fuel economy, we need other technical characteristics.

Q: How do you view the future of fuel cell technology and diesel engines?

A: For fuel cells or other technologies, having a higher energy density than batteries, there will be better prospects than diesel engines. Because large-capacity batteries are too heavy, they will put longer loads on long-distance transport vehicles, so I think fuel cells are more likely to be commercialized. At present, the Chinese government is advancing this technology. Commercial vehicles will use fuel cells in the future, and passenger vehicles or urban transportation will be electrified. I believe that China will step up efforts to promote this plan, and Japan will do the same. At the same time, with the introduction of new European carbon dioxide emission regulations, Europe will also step up efforts.

I am optimistic about the bright future of diesel engines. Now diesel engines cover every application, and this will not be the case in the future, but for many applications, diesel engines will still be the best solution for a long time to come, so we expect the diesel engine business to continue for 40-50 years. . Although it will not cover all applications, I believe we will still operate the diesel business, involving natural gas, electric business, hybrid power, and fuel cells.

Q: Will the same emission standards be adopted in various regions in the future?

A: I think the answer is no, but it should be very close. By 2020-2021, almost all major markets will reach Euro 6 levels, including China, India, Japan, the United States, and Europe, so we hope to see the implementation of these stringent standards. Although the situation varies from country to country, I believe that all countries are moving towards a cleaner environment, which is essential for global sustainable development. We need to continue investing to achieve economic growth while minimizing environmental damage. This is what engineers need to work hard to achieve.

Technical Articles

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